By 2026, health economics and outcomes research (HEOR) and real-world evidence (RWE) will look less like a supporting function and more like strategic infrastructure. The question facing manufacturers is no longer whether RWE matters, but whether their evidence strategies are aligned with how decisions are actually being made—particularly in Medicare.

Several forces are converging: policy reforms that reward earlier and more credible evidence, maturing real-world data assets, and rising expectations around transparency. Together, they are reshaping what “good” evidence looks like and how it is used.

Below are the key HEOR and RWE trends manufacturers should be watching closely in 2026.

1. RWE Becomes Structurally Decisive

RWE is no longer simply contextual or supportive. In practice, it is increasingly shaping baseline assumptions around effectiveness, durability, and uncertainty—especially within Medicare decision contexts. Even when not explicitly cited, real-world evidence influences how gaps in clinical trial data are interpreted.

The implication is clear: RWE is now embedded in decision logic, not just appended to submissions.

2. Medicare-Centered Evidence Planning Becomes the Default

Evidence strategies are increasingly being designed backward from the needs of Medicare, rather than retrofitted after approval. As Medicare’s influence grows, manufacturers are adjusting earlier in development.

This shift shows up in:

Earlier inclusion of older and more clinically complex populations
Greater attention to real-world adherence, persistence, and treatment switching
Planned post-launch evidence refresh cycles rather than one-off studies

By 2026, Medicare considerations are shaping global evidence plans—not just US access strategies.

3. Design Quality Overtakes Data Volume

Large datasets alone no longer signal credibility. Decision-makers are focusing more closely on whether study designs meaningfully answer the policy question at hand.

In 2026, credibility is increasingly defined by:

Thoughtful comparator selection
Clear endpoint rationale
Transparent discussion of residual bias and uncertainty

The era of “bigger is better” is giving way to “appropriate and explainable.”

4. Claims Data Face a Credibility Stress Test

Administrative claims remain foundational to RWE, but their limitations are being scrutinized more openly. Attempts to infer nuanced clinical outcomes from billing data alone are increasingly challenged.

As a result, manufacturers are:

Using claims data for what they do best—utilization, costs, patterns of care
Supplementing with EHRs, registries, or linkage where clinical detail matters
Framing findings descriptively rather than making overstated causal claims

Claims data are not losing relevance—but expectations around how they are used are rising.

5. Endpoints Are Re-Examined

Endpoints that worked well in trials do not automatically translate to real-world credibility. In 2026, decision makers are asking sharper questions about whether endpoints are clinically meaningful, interpretable, and aligned with patient experience.

This scrutiny is particularly acute for chronic therapies, where long-term benefit claims carry pricing and access implications.

6. Policy Literacy Becomes a Core HEOR Capability

Strong analytics alone are no longer sufficient. High-impact HEOR teams increasingly understand how evidence is interpreted inside institutions such as Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

This includes knowing:

Where methodological rigor is non-negotiable
Where clarity and transparency matter most
How evidence narratives form under uncertainty

In 2026, policy fluency is becoming as important as statistical sophistication.

7. The Inflation Reduction Act’s Secondary Effects Come Into Focus

By 2026, the most important impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are less about individual negotiations and more about system-level behavior change.

These include:

Earlier and more intentional evidence investment
Closer alignment between HEOR, market access, and policy teams
Diminishing tolerance for superficial or reactive RWE

The IRA’s influence is increasingly visible across portfolios, not just in headline cases.

8. Transparency Becomes a Strategic Asset

Overconfidence and selective reporting increasingly undermine credibility. In contrast, manufacturers that clearly articulate assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty often build greater trust with decision makers.

By 2026, transparency is no longer a liability—it is a strategic advantage.

9. RWE Timelines Accelerate While Expectations Rise

Decision timelines continue to compress, but expectations around rigor are not relaxing. This places a premium on:

Pre-planned evidence architectures
Standing data partnerships
Reusable analytic frameworks

Ad hoc, late-stage RWE efforts struggle to keep pace in this environment.

10. HEOR’s Strategic Role Continues to Expand

By 2026, HEOR is no longer just the function that produces studies. It increasingly shapes how value is understood under real-world uncertainty.

Manufacturers that recognize this shift—and plan accordingly—will be better positioned to navigate an evidence environment that is becoming more demanding, more transparent, and more consequential.

Bottom Line

In 2026, the competitive advantage will not belong to organizations that generate the most real-world evidence, but to those that generate the right evidence—early, transparently, and align with how Medicare decisions are actually made.

Learn More 

ADVI supports life sciences organizations with integrated HEOR and real-world evidence capabilities—spanning evidence strategy, study design, analytics, and policy interpretation—to help ensure real-world evidence is aligned with evolving decision contexts and evidence expectations. Get in touch to receive insights from our strategic analytics, value and economics (SAVEs) solution team.